Navigating Downside Inflation and Labor Market Rebalancing

December 4, 2023

Stocks rallied in November on slower-than-expected inflation data, falling Treasury yields, and speculation that the Fed will be able to pull off a soft landing. The S&P 500 and the Dow advanced 9.1% and 9.2%, respectively, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq rallied 10.8% for the month. Markets seemed to take the month’s data as an indication that the Fed will likely cut rates aggressively soon (a full percentage point cut by the end of next year is currently forecasted by the futures market). However, we do not expect rate cuts until the second half of 2024.