|January 1, 2019||
What is your outlook for the U.S. equity market for 2019?
Our global tactical asset allocation (GTAA) model still signals a relatively bullish outlook for the U.S. equities. Strong readings in sentiment and valuation indicators outweigh weaker technicals and recent price pullbacks.
In 2018, the U.S. economy enjoyed a banner year with real GDP annual growth rate on track to increase by close to 3%, which is the strongest gain of the nearly decade-long expansion. We believe the deficit-financed tax cuts and government spending increases will continue to help the economy grow much of next year. We also expect the labor market to continue to grow and unemployment to stay low by historical standards.
Despite these positive signals, we do recognize some possibilities of weakness moving forward. The stimulus effect might fade and put downward pressure on the market in the longer term and diminishing labor supply might result in gradually decreasing prices. The ceasefire between the U.S. and China may indicate that the worst of the escalations are behind us. However, the trade tension remains and might contribute to equity volatility. We do expect some market volatility to continue through 2019 despite our model indicating that the odds of a near-term recession remain relatively low.
|January 19, 2018||
The Legends Value strategy continued its positive run into the fourth quarter of last year as global equities pushed to fresh highs. For the quarter, the strategy was up 6.4% while its benchmark, the S&P 500 Value Index, was up 6.3%. Versus the S&P 500 Index, the largest allocation differences were overweight Consumer Discretionary, Health Care and Industrials and underweight Energy, Materials and Utilities. Overall, our sector allocation decisions contributed positively to relative performance, totaling +0.25% over the course of the quarter. For the quarter, stock selection contributed positively in the Healthcare and Industrials sectors, and negatively in the Energy and Financials sectors. Overall, the impact of these sector factors was slightly net negative, attributing -0.1% to performance relative to the S&P 500.
For further commentary and reflection on the fourth quarter and 2017 in full, click here.
|September 1, 2015||
Legends Value managed to soften the blow of the August decline as the strategy fell roughly 1.5% less than the S&P 500. Stock selection was a key differentiator in the performance.
|July 1, 2015||
Legends Value remained in line with its value competitors and remains positive YTD. Value stocks as whole have underperformed their growth counterparts.
|June 23, 2015||
A recent, welcomed addition to the portfolio is Constant Contact (CTCT). Since its original purchase date on May 26, 2015, the web-based online marketing firm has grown +9% in value during a flat market (S&P 500). The recent growth helps prove the email marketing industry is alive and well for the moment.
|June 2, 2015||
Legends Value remains in line with the market’s (S&P 500) performance even though value stocks underperformed growth stocks in May. Positions added to or increased in the portfolio include AGO, CTCT, DECK, OIS, and PLD.
|May 12, 2015||
In a deal announced this morning, Verizon Communications will purchase AOL. This news boosted AOL’s daily performance almost +18%. The big gains in AOL kept Legends Value positive in a day when the market traded in negative territory. Today’s action adds to the +10% movement AOL experienced after its recent quarterly earnings report. NorthCoast liquidated AOL after the jump.
|May 4, 2015||
Value stocks remained in line with the general market. Legends Value has had a productive year with multiple stocks posting double-digits gains. 75% of holdings remain in positive territory.
|March 3, 2015||
Value stocks increased with the rest of global equities in February. With the rebound, the strategy liquidated PFE, XOM, and VZ and replaced with OIS, TRI, NVO, the latter increasing 10+% since its purchase point.
|February 2, 2015||
Value stocks were hit especially hard in January as the S&P 500 Value fell -4.4%. However, positive stock selection with the over allocation to discretionary stocks and slight underweight to energy stocks in January aided the portfolio. Legends Value saw a modest pullback compared to value stocks as a whole.
|January 6, 2015||
Throughout the year, value stocks underperformed their growth counterparts. Legends Value’s fully-invested mandate provided strong returns off the periodic pullbacks but its high exposure to oil stocks in the 2nd half of the year dampened performance.
|December 2, 2014||
Legends Value’s roughly 12% exposure to oil and energy stocks led to a disappointing end to the month. Much of the names in the sector have been hit by the continued decrease in oil prices.
|November 5, 2014||
With the whipsaw action in the marketplace, Legends Value experienced its fair share of volatility. The mid-month correction allowed for attractive entry into new positions as the strategy gears up for year-end.
|October 1, 2014||
With valuations dipping from their yearly high, value stocks lost momentum, but more opportunities should open as Q3 earnings season gets underway.
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